您指出的对!我之前的计算有误。
正确公式:单号中奖收入 = 注码 × 9.85,净利润 = 注码×9.85 - 累计总投入
因为买2个号,每个号单独计算赔率,只有命中的那个号才产生收入。
重新精确计算:
| 期数 | 每号注码 | 本期总投(×2) | 累计总投 | 若此号命中收入 | 净利润 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 500 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 4,925 | +3,925 ⚠️略低 |
| 2 | 630 | 1,260 | 2,260 | 6,207 | +3,947 ✅ |
| 3 | 780 | 1,560 | 3,820 | 7,683 | +3,863 ⚠️ |
| 4 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 5,820 | 9,850 | +4,030 ✅ |
| 5 | 1,250 | 2,500 | 8,320 | 12,313 | +3,993 ✅ |
| 6 | 1,600 | 3,200 | 11,520 | 15,760 | +4,240 ✅ |
| 7 | 2,000 | 4,000 | 15,520 | 19,700 | +4,180 ✅ |
| 8 | 2,500 | 5,000 | 20,520 | 24,625 | +4,105 ✅ |
| 9 | 3,200 | 6,400 | 26,920 | 31,520 | +4,600 ✅ |
| 10 | 4,000 | 8,000 | 34,920 | 39,400 | +4,480 ✅ |
| 11 | 5,000 | 10,000 | 44,920 | 49,250 | +4,330 ✅ |
| 12 | 6,300 | 12,600 | 57,520 | 62,055 | +4,535 ✅ |
| 13 | 8,000 | 16,000 | 73,520 | 78,800 | +5,280 ✅ |
| 14 | 10,000 | 20,000 | 93,520 | 98,500 | +4,980 ✅ |
| 15 | 15,000 | 30,000 | 123,520 | 147,750 | +24,230 ✅✅ |
| 16 | 17,000 | 34,000 | 157,520 | 167,450 | +9,930 ✅ |
| 17 | 19,000 | 38,000 | 195,520 | 187,150 | -8,370 ❌ |
| 18 | 21,000 | 42,000 | 237,520 | 206,850 | -30,670 ❌ |
| 19 | 23,000 | 46,000 | 283,520 | 226,550 | -56,970 ❌ |
| 20 | 25,000 | 50,000 | 333,520 | 246,250 | -87,270 ❌ |
🚨 重大问题!
第17-20期如果只中一个号,反而会亏损!这是因为累计投入增长太快,而单个号的回报跟不上。
🔧 修正方案
要让每期净利≥3,950,需要调整后期注码增速。以下是优化后的版本:
| 期数 | 每号注码 | 本期总投 | 累计总投 | 若命中收入 | 净利润 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 500 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 4,925 | +3,925 |
| 2 | 630 | 1,260 | 2,260 | 6,207 | +3,947 |
| 3 | 780 | 1,560 | 3,820 | 7,683 | +3,863 |
| 4 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 5,820 | 9,850 | +4,030 |
| 5 | 1,250 | 2,500 | 8,320 | 12,313 | +3,993 |
| 6 | 1,600 | 3,200 | 11,520 | 15,760 | +4,240 |
| 7 | 2,000 | 4,000 | 15,520 | 19,700 | +4,180 |
| 8 | 2,500 | 5,000 | 20,520 | 24,625 | +4,105 |
| 9 | 3,200 | 6,400 | 26,920 | 31,520 | +4,600 |
| 10 | 4,000 | 8,000 | 34,920 | 39,400 | +4,480 |
| 11 | 5,000 | 10,000 | 44,920 | 49,250 | +4,330 |
| 12 | 6,300 | 12,600 | 57,520 | 62,055 | +4,535 |
| 13 | 8,000 | 16,000 | 73,520 | 78,800 | +5,280 |
| 14 | 10,000 | 20,000 | 93,520 | 98,500 | +4,980 |
| 15 | 12,000 | 24,000 | 117,520 | 118,200 | +680 ⚠️利润骤降 |
| 16 | 14,000 | 28,000 | 145,520 | 137,900 | -7,620 ❌ |
结论:按您的序列,最多只能安全运行到第14期。第15期开始风险急剧上升。
💡 建议
要么:
- 在第14期后收手(已锁定约5万利润)
- 降低后期注码增速,改为平缓递增
- 接受后期可能亏损的风险,但前期利润可覆盖
您希望采用哪种方式?